In the early part of the 20th century, there was a reluctance to talk about either the subconscious or the unconscious. Their existence was somewhat suspect, simply because, by definition, the unconscious is not observable. However, by the late 20th century, experiments in cognitive science had revealed that the unconscious is, indeed, an important element in human cognition. In fact, the pendulum of opinion has swung so much in the other direction that some psychologists now rhapsodize about the power of the unconscious as the parent of its limited offspring, the conscious. David Brooks, a columnist for The New York Times, suggested that the unconscious is “200,000 times” more powerful than the conscious mind. Though enthusiasm for the power of the unconscious may be justified, the assignment of a numerical ratio to these dimensions of the mind should be regarded as poetic license.
In Blink: The Power of Thinking without Thinking, Malcolm Gladwell provides several dramatic examples of the prominent role played by intuition in our decision making. He describes intuitive judgments, like forming a first impression of a job applicant or recognizing the face of a friend not seen for decades, as a cognitive process that occurs in the “blink of an eye.” Intuition or visceral thinking is fast, holistic, and effortless, requiring none of the intermediate steps that are required in the rational process.
So, the good news is that our intuition has evolved to make us subliminally aware of danger, to subdue our spontaneous impulses and to enable us to anticipate significant challenges. However, our ability to predict the future in any detail does not exist. In fact, some quantum physicists believe the future is not determined. Furthermore our intuition may sometimes lead us astray.
Can we Trust our Intuition?
Indeed, the selection of a spouse, perhaps the most important decision in our lives, relies heavily on the “reasons of the heart.” Typically, we don’t research the health history of a prospective spouse’s family to ensure the absence of hereditary disease, and we don’t ask our spouse for an academic transcript. We operate mainly on “gut feel” or, more dangerously, feelings below the gut. However, data from the U.S. Bureau of Statistics indicate that between 40% and 50% of marriages in America end in divorce. This statistic has given rise to prenuptial agreements that hedge against the bet that the marriage will succeed. In essence, the “prenup” is a rational intervention in a visceral decision.
There are many cases when our intuition fails us. In fact there is an entire collection of what are called “counter-intuitive” problems in which our intuition leads us astray. Consider, for example, the following problem:
Peter is looking at Mary, while Mary is looking at Paul. Peter is married. Paul is unmarried. Is a married person looking at an unmarried person?
Answer: a) yes b). no. c). cannot be determined
For the answer, visit: Is a married person looking at an unmarried person? – Intelligence and IQ
In recent years, psychologists have uncovered a wide variety of cognitive biases, such as survivorship bias, and ingroup-outgroup bias that are linked to our intuition and skew our perceptions. (See; The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli).
So, our intuition can serve us well in anticipating danger, sensing people’s attitudes and making judgments, but it is less able to predict the future with any specificity. That’s why horoscopes, fortune-tellers and fortune cookies make vague predictions with multiple interpretations. We all possess instinct and intuitive powers, but we must also recognize that they can sometimes lead us astray. Our thinking should combine rational thinking with our intuition. Even then, we may still get some things wrong.
