There is a positive correlation between intelligence and success in the US presidency, because the most intelligent people are found to be more likely to make good decisions and those who make the worst decisions are most often those who lack intelligence. However, that fact that there are many other factors that make for a good president, mean that the correlation is somewhere between medium and strong. Leadership, intuition, wisdom and experience are all factors that determine the effectiveness of the CEO of any corporation or of the President of the United States.
In 2006, psychologist Dean Keith Simonton conducted what is called a historiometric study of the 42 US presidents from George Washington to George W. Bush in an attempt to estimate their IQs. Entering data from biographies detailing their educational backgrounds, personality descriptions, intellectual achievements, and accomplishments into a sophisticated software program designed to estimate IQs from such profiles, he ranked them by IQ.
Since many arbitrary judgments are involved in quantifying cognitive characteristics, the specific IQ for any particular president should be taken as a very rough estimate at best. Changing input data by even a small amount would change significantly the estimated IQ. However, the value in this study resides in its comparison of the potential for achievement (IQ) with actual achievement. The table below lists, in descending order, the 10 presidents with the highest estimated IQ. Many presidents, like Washington at 20th (est. IQ 132.5) and Lincoln at 12th (est. IQ 140) who are not on this list, achieved significantly more than several who made the top ten, suggesting that performance in a role is not dependent on IQ alone. Simonton states, “Intellect is not, by any means, the only predictor of presidential leadership. Many other variables are involved as well, including both personality traits and situational factors.”
As America moves toward the election of the next U.S. President, there will be much speculation about about the relative intelligence of the candidates. However, the best measure of how a candidate will perform is their past record of achievement. Identifying the better candidate, will require an examination of their past policies, their achievements and their ideologies. This will require some research and effort, because the media have become increasingly partisan in recent decades, and separating fact from fiction has become more challenging. Yet, the selection of the better candidate will have a dramatic effect on how the future of America will unfold. An old adage warns us that, “An electorate that elects an incompetent candidate is well-represented.”
