This is a difficult question to answer because intelligence has many facets. Today’s youth are much more adept, on average, than those of previous generations in using technology and in working cooperatively with others to find answers to their problems. However, they are not as proficient, on average, as the Baby Boomer generation in arithmetic, grammar, or composition, nor as familiar with great literature.
Such skills are a part of what psychologists call “crystallized” intelligence. (see: What is fluid intelligence? How does it differ and what is it used for? In comparison to regular intelligence. – Intelligence and IQ ) The skills and knowledge component of intelligence varies across the generations, so that each generation will be more capable than others in certain areas.
Fluid intelligence, the component of intelligence that is measured on IQ tests with progressive matrices, is mental acuity, i.e., the ability to interpret and process information, see patterns, problem solve, etc. This component of intelligence, often designated g (for general mental ability), is mainly determined by our DNA and varies significantly across individuals. However, when averaged across generations the differences are small and relate more to population demographics than to any differences in brain structure. The Flynn Effect and the Reverse Flynn effect show some fluctuations in average intelligence across generations, but their meaning is still under discussion. (See: Flynn, J. R. 1984. “The Mean IQ of Americans: Massive Gains 1932 to 1978.” Psychological Bulletin. 95. pp. 29–51.) Genetic changes occur at a glacially slow rate, so we cannot expect significant changes in average g over a few centuries.
Perhaps the greatest difference in the generations will be the range of effective intelligence across individuals. Effective intelligence is a measure of the intellectual power that a person can bring to bear in solving a problem. The new technologies serve as intellectual amplifiers in their ability to multiply, by a large factor, the effective intelligence of a person. To a person of low intelligence, the computer technology does not offer a significant increase in their effective intelligence. However, a truly gifted person who understands how to use technology can multiply their effective intelligence by a huge factor using the technology as an aid. This gigantic increase in effective intelligence increases the gap in productivity between those of different intelligence levels and with this comes a significant difference in income. Steve Jobs, founder of Apple Inc. explained in an interview with Business Week on October 12, 2004, one of the secrets of his success in hiring employees.
I noticed that the dynamic range between what an average person could accomplish and what the best person could accomplish was 50 or 100 to 1. Given that, you’re well advised to go after the cream of the cream … A small team of A+ players can run circles around a giant team of B and C players.
It may be the dramatic differences in the effective intelligence of individuals that will have the greatest impact on our society in the years ahead. The long-term effects of AI as well as potential eugenics through gene manipulation are factors that will play a significant role in how human intelligence unfolds over the generations to come. So the short answer to the question is that some members of the new generation will have greater effective intelligence than those of previous generations and others will not. The average g factor will probably not change significantly, though education, especially in Third World countries will significantly increase the crystallized intelligence of people in those nations.
With all this speculation about the future, I should issue a caveat. As Yogi Berra once said, “Prediction is extremely difficult, especially about the future.”
